History
Junior
road race was first time held in 1976 when Roberto Visentini from Italy
won the gold medal. Italy is also the most successful team in history
of road race with eleven gold medals and total number of 26 medals. On
the other hand the last time when Italy claimed gold came in 2007 when
Diego Ulissi won his second title in road race in Aguascalientes. 2007
was indeed special for Italy as they filled the whole podium with
Daniele Ratto finishing second and Elia Favilli third. Ulissi is also
one of the two riders in history of road race who managed to win twice.
The second one is his countryman Gabrielle Palumbo. Felix Gall can join
this elite club if he manages to win tomorrow. The history shows that
junior road race is much more unpredictable then the time trial. Despite
their famous palmares in junior ranks, Cancellara, Sagan, Jungels,
Kittel or Kwiatkowski never claimed a medal in World Champs road race. Last year, despite dead flat course in Qatar, the strongest riders managed to split the field in last lap. Jakob Egholm managed to get away from elite group and won solo ahead of German Niklas Markl who won the sprint for 2nd place and Reto Muller from Switzerland.
Route
Before entering the circuit in Bergen junior men will ride 39,5km of fairly flat roads across the fjords. Once entering the circuit, they will do one shorter lap of 17,9km before crossing the line for the first time and racing another four laps of the 19.1km circuit giving the race a total distance of 133,8km.
The circuit itself begins with a tunnel and is flat but at 2km there is a 500m climb up to Solheimsviken. The riders then get some more false flat before they do a descent and after five kilometres another ascent starts with 1km at 5% before reaching Arstad. The road continues to raise a little for a kilometre or so before they reach Salmon Hill. The climb is 1.5km long at 6.4%, although the first 500m averages almost 8% while the last 1000m is under 6% average.
The descent is relatively technical with a hairpin and a few tight bends before straightening out at 10km mark. The road is slightly descending with a few kick ups all the way until the 15km mark. The last part of the circuit is the same as that of the RR and TTT and
includes the 600m of fine, slightly uphill section of cobblestones as the riders enter the city
centre before finishing by Festplassen.
Overall, this course is very demanding in first half with several uncategorised climbs before reaching the Salmon Hill. After technical but fast descent the route is mainly flat which could give a chance for some riders dropped on the hill to come back to the main group. Weather could make a big difference, for now it looks like juniors will be lucky with no rain. If it's raining we can expect more splits and smaller group fighting for gold.
Asked DS of US Cycling Junior team, Billy Innes, what he thinks about the course: The road race will be a big challenge and the first 40km run in to the circuits could either be a direct tailwind or a cross/headwind if the storms that are predicted to arrive actually hit Bergen. Once onto the circuit it'll be hard to organize any kind of chase due to the terrain and twisty nature of the circuit. Having a caravan this year could make a big difference in the race. I expect it to come down to a small group sprint after the race shatters, which could happen within two laps of entering the circuit. It will definitely reward the brave and aggressive riders. Anyone who wins on Saturday will have earned it, for sure.
Julius Johansen shared his thoughts as well: We have tried the route a couple of times and it is a tough route. We will start outside the city and the first 40 km are flat until we hit the circuit, where Salmon Hill will be the big challenge. I think it will be a race with attacks already from start, but the most dangerous attacks will be on Salmon Hill. Denmark has a strong team where there are several riders who can make a good result. For myself, I hope I can follow the best guys on the climb and I think that Tom Pidcock will be the strongest competitor.
I have also asked one of the strongest sprinters in the bunch, Niklas Markl, what he thinks about the course: It's a hard and selective course, and the final with the cobbles is also pretty hard. The climb is very hard especially at the end when it gets steeper. I think the weather will affect the race because not every rider can ride in the rain. I think the race ends with a small group sprint or with a solo attacks. The main opponents are Tom Pidcock, Andreas Lekknesund and Julius Johansen. The Dutch, Belgian and Italian guys are also very strong.
I have also asked Devin Shortt from South Africa about his thoughts: The race should really starts kicking off in final few laps and many of the riders are gonna keep a lot left in the tank for that final effort up Salmon hill which is a real kicker if you've go no more legs and could be the decider of the race. I think looking at the results from the u/23 that the bigger guys are struggling on the hills after doing it for a few laps so I think it favors someone who can be seen as more of a climber or light weight rider. I think Tom Pidcock is definitely a rider to watch for Saturday. Though I do believe he'll be marked by the other bigger nations maybe marking him out the race. I think the group will start whittling down slowly at the beginning but I see a real good chance of a small group staying away on this course and would be surprised to see a bunch sprint.
Favorites
After his impressive performance in time trial, I decided to start my list of favorites from Tom Pidcock. It won't be an easy day for Tom even if the will be the strongest guy on the road. We have teams like Norway and Denmark who should be able to have number in final lap and could bring a strong solo attack. On the other hand we saw in u23 race that it's possible to ride away on final climb and keep the gap. Despite being the most marked man, I think Pidcock is the favorite considering his shape and abilities.
Denmark's biggest advantage are the numbers as every year in junior category. They have several guys who will be able to both win the race or keep the race together if needed. Each of Danish team is capable of winning tomorrow but I think Julius Johansen could be the strongest. After bad luck in TT (puncture) Julius will be highly motivated to show his real level tomorrow. If he can handle the hills with the best I believe he can launch a late attacks that no one will be able to respond. Also from a smal group we can see Johansen winning a sprint. If we see a bigger group staying together, Ludvig Wacker is the man to watch as he's very fast on the line and surely can survive the hills. The rest of the team will be able to join pretty much every attack on the road so don't be surprise if Price Pejtersen, Skjelmose Jensen, Langballe or Jakob Hindsgaul actually wins tomorrow.
Norway is on the home soil and they have two strong cards to play, the same one as in time trial. Andreas Leknessund is in a great shape and we can expect to see him in similar move as Johansen. Soren Waerenskjold, despite being first year junior is fast enough to win a sprint from bigger group and his silver medal from European Championships where he was beaten only by Micky Gazzoli is a best proof. His a very good bike handler and I think he should be able to either get away on final descent or bridge to the elite group after the final climb if he struggle a little on Salmon Hill.
I have consider Niklas Markl, silver medalist from Doha, as a pure sprinter but after his impressive results in Italian race I believe he can handle the hills in Bergen. He won difficult hilly Trofeo Emilio Paganessi and flattish Memorial Pietro Merelli in Septmeber showing good shape. He is also current bronze medalist from European Championships. If we see a bigger group arriving together Niklas will be there to sprint for gold.
Other names to watch: Remco Evenepoel, Maikel Zijlaard, Daan Hoole, Andrea Innocenti, Tobias Bayer, Alexis Renard, Nik Cemezar and Mitchell Wright
Prediction
The strongest guy will win and I think it will be either solo rider or very small group. 1. Tom Pidcock, 2. Julius Johansen, 3. Niklas Markl
Startlist
Julius Johansen shared his thoughts as well: We have tried the route a couple of times and it is a tough route. We will start outside the city and the first 40 km are flat until we hit the circuit, where Salmon Hill will be the big challenge. I think it will be a race with attacks already from start, but the most dangerous attacks will be on Salmon Hill. Denmark has a strong team where there are several riders who can make a good result. For myself, I hope I can follow the best guys on the climb and I think that Tom Pidcock will be the strongest competitor.
I have also asked one of the strongest sprinters in the bunch, Niklas Markl, what he thinks about the course: It's a hard and selective course, and the final with the cobbles is also pretty hard. The climb is very hard especially at the end when it gets steeper. I think the weather will affect the race because not every rider can ride in the rain. I think the race ends with a small group sprint or with a solo attacks. The main opponents are Tom Pidcock, Andreas Lekknesund and Julius Johansen. The Dutch, Belgian and Italian guys are also very strong.
I have also asked Devin Shortt from South Africa about his thoughts: The race should really starts kicking off in final few laps and many of the riders are gonna keep a lot left in the tank for that final effort up Salmon hill which is a real kicker if you've go no more legs and could be the decider of the race. I think looking at the results from the u/23 that the bigger guys are struggling on the hills after doing it for a few laps so I think it favors someone who can be seen as more of a climber or light weight rider. I think Tom Pidcock is definitely a rider to watch for Saturday. Though I do believe he'll be marked by the other bigger nations maybe marking him out the race. I think the group will start whittling down slowly at the beginning but I see a real good chance of a small group staying away on this course and would be surprised to see a bunch sprint.
Favorites
After his impressive performance in time trial, I decided to start my list of favorites from Tom Pidcock. It won't be an easy day for Tom even if the will be the strongest guy on the road. We have teams like Norway and Denmark who should be able to have number in final lap and could bring a strong solo attack. On the other hand we saw in u23 race that it's possible to ride away on final climb and keep the gap. Despite being the most marked man, I think Pidcock is the favorite considering his shape and abilities.
Denmark's biggest advantage are the numbers as every year in junior category. They have several guys who will be able to both win the race or keep the race together if needed. Each of Danish team is capable of winning tomorrow but I think Julius Johansen could be the strongest. After bad luck in TT (puncture) Julius will be highly motivated to show his real level tomorrow. If he can handle the hills with the best I believe he can launch a late attacks that no one will be able to respond. Also from a smal group we can see Johansen winning a sprint. If we see a bigger group staying together, Ludvig Wacker is the man to watch as he's very fast on the line and surely can survive the hills. The rest of the team will be able to join pretty much every attack on the road so don't be surprise if Price Pejtersen, Skjelmose Jensen, Langballe or Jakob Hindsgaul actually wins tomorrow.
Norway is on the home soil and they have two strong cards to play, the same one as in time trial. Andreas Leknessund is in a great shape and we can expect to see him in similar move as Johansen. Soren Waerenskjold, despite being first year junior is fast enough to win a sprint from bigger group and his silver medal from European Championships where he was beaten only by Micky Gazzoli is a best proof. His a very good bike handler and I think he should be able to either get away on final descent or bridge to the elite group after the final climb if he struggle a little on Salmon Hill.
I have consider Niklas Markl, silver medalist from Doha, as a pure sprinter but after his impressive results in Italian race I believe he can handle the hills in Bergen. He won difficult hilly Trofeo Emilio Paganessi and flattish Memorial Pietro Merelli in Septmeber showing good shape. He is also current bronze medalist from European Championships. If we see a bigger group arriving together Niklas will be there to sprint for gold.
Other names to watch: Remco Evenepoel, Maikel Zijlaard, Daan Hoole, Andrea Innocenti, Tobias Bayer, Alexis Renard, Nik Cemezar and Mitchell Wright
Prediction
The strongest guy will win and I think it will be either solo rider or very small group. 1. Tom Pidcock, 2. Julius Johansen, 3. Niklas Markl
Startlist
