Junior time trial World Championships. I wasn't sure how to start this preview but after what Brandon McNulty and Mikkel Bjerg did today in u23 time trial it's pretty easy. If you want to know who may be their successors, You should definitely read my preview.
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| 2016 podium: Mikkel Bjerg, Brandon McNulty, Ian Garrison |
History
Junior TT World Championships was first run
in 1994 when Dean Rogers from Australia won the gold medal in
Agrigento. Historically, Germany is the most successive country with six
gold medals including two from Marcel Kittel and two in the latest
editions with Lennard Kamna winning in 2014 and Leo Appelt in 2015
beating two Americans: Adrien Costa and Brandon McNulty. Apart from
Kittel, only two other riders managed to win the gold twice: Fabian
Cancellara and Mikhail Ignatiev.
Despite their famous dominance in
junior ranks, Denmark have won the gold only once. Mads Würtz Schmidt
was the winner is his home race in Copenhagen. Last year in Doha the obvious favourite, Brandon McNulty won with a solid gap over Mikkel Bjerg from Denmark and McNulty's team mate, Ian Garrison. McNulty and Bjerg impressed a year later with 1-2 in U23 time trial during current Champs in Bergen.
Route
The Junior Time Trial route take place around Bergen on a technical 21.1km course (long lap on map). Starting in Grieghallen the route heads south towards Lake Nordåsvannet. After fairly flat seven kilometres riders will tackle the most important climb of the day, Birkelundsbakken. 1,4km long climb has an average gradient of 7.2% but the steepest section reaches 16%. The last part of the circuit is the same as that of the RR and TTT and includes the 600m of fine cobblestones as the riders enter the city centre before finishing by Festplassen.
Asked DS of US Cycling Junior team, Billy Innes, what he thinks about the course: I think that the TT course is a lot harder than in years past. We can split it into three sections: fist section is out of town and uphill, second one is downhill, rolling, then the third section is technical with a dose of cobblestones. With limited gears it would be hard to gain back time lost on the climb section and depending on wind even harder in the technical section. The course will reward those that attack out of the gate. Rain could play a huge role, but the forecast is looking good until Wednesday/Thursday.
Thomas Scheurer from Swiss Team shares Billy's opinion: Course starts climbing right from the beginning. The main climb is really steep and after the climb its only 10 kilometers of fast downhill to the line so the first half is the difficult part there some technical turns on the downhill before the big climb.
One of the race favorites, Julius Johansen, would love to see more technical route: It is not very technical, and the circuit can be divided in two separate circuits. The first part is with a steep hill, but after it is very flat. This circuit will suit many type of riders. I think my biggest competitors will be Pidcock and Leknessund. The hill is very big for me, so it does not suit me perfectly. I would like a very technical circuit.
Asked DS of US Cycling Junior team, Billy Innes, what he thinks about the course: I think that the TT course is a lot harder than in years past. We can split it into three sections: fist section is out of town and uphill, second one is downhill, rolling, then the third section is technical with a dose of cobblestones. With limited gears it would be hard to gain back time lost on the climb section and depending on wind even harder in the technical section. The course will reward those that attack out of the gate. Rain could play a huge role, but the forecast is looking good until Wednesday/Thursday.
Thomas Scheurer from Swiss Team shares Billy's opinion: Course starts climbing right from the beginning. The main climb is really steep and after the climb its only 10 kilometers of fast downhill to the line so the first half is the difficult part there some technical turns on the downhill before the big climb.
One of the race favorites, Julius Johansen, would love to see more technical route: It is not very technical, and the circuit can be divided in two separate circuits. The first part is with a steep hill, but after it is very flat. This circuit will suit many type of riders. I think my biggest competitors will be Pidcock and Leknessund. The hill is very big for me, so it does not suit me perfectly. I would like a very technical circuit.
Favorites
The list of favourites has to be opened with two names from Norway. Despite his recent health issues which affected his Grand Prix Rüebliland performance, Andreas Leknessund is still the main favourite on this course. Current European Champion won three important time trials this year. In Course de la Paix, Trophée Centre Morbihan and Niedersachsen-Rundfahrt. He was also 2nd in Trofeo Karlsberg where he was beaten by his main rival in Bergen, Julius Johansen. The course should suit Leknessund as he cope well with the hills and should know the route by heart. Soren Waerenskjold, first year junior has been amazing in second part of the year. After few solid top20 places in time trials during spring Nations Cup races, Soren reached second place in National Champs (behind Leknessund) before finishing 3rd in TT and winning GC in Niedersachsen-Rundfahrt. In European Championships he finished fifth, only losing to some of the top favourites for Worlds TT and clearly he was the best first year junior. Finally, Waerenskjold impressed in GP Rüebliland finishing second in TT, just behind Tom Pidcock. While young Norwegian may surprise many in road race, I also rate him as one of the top favourites for time trial.
Julius Johansen showed himself already last year with fourth place in Doha's time trial and impressive attacking style performance in road race. Even tough he spent half of his season on track, he is still one of the main guys for tomorrow's TT. Johansen might struggle on the steep climb but in top shape he shouldn't lose much to his main opponents (apart from Pidcock, maybe). Johansen rode three important TTs this year and won two of them: National Champs and Trofeo Karlsberg (beating Leknessund). The final test was European Champs where he was beaten only by Leknessund. This two guys should provide a big battle tomorrow.
While you may consider Tom Pidcock as a classics specialist on road and the best cyclocrosser in u19 category for now, "mini-Sagan" showed he can also ride well in time trials. Recently he won two of them, one aginst some of the top guys in Grand Prix Rüebliland and second in Junior Tour of Wales which also gave him GC win in both of these races. Pidcock is my favourite to gain time on climb over big guys like Norwegians and Johansen. Question is if he can keep it until the line but with a fast downhill and knowing Pidcock bike handling skills I'm sure he can keep it up.
Sébastien Grignard is one of the most consistent guys in junior category this year. He may not have many big wins (even tough he is current double national champion) but he was always up there with the best in classics, stage races and time trials and bronze medal in European Champs was a perfect confirmation of his huge potential. 2nd in Course de la Paix TT, three times top ten in spring classics and recent second place in Philippe Gilbert Classic. If the big guys really struggle on the climb, Grignard can even reach the podium place.
Other names to watch: Florentin Lecamus Lambert, Daan Hoole, Johan Price-Pejtersen, Nik Cemezar, Filip Maciejuk, Antonio Puppio, Richard Holec, Sebastian Berwick.
Prediction
Despite how much I admire Pidcock, I think raw power will win. 1. Johansen, 2. Leknessund, 3. Pidcock
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